Comments

I build 3kw solar tracking

I build 3kw solar tracking systems for $30k that cover 140 sq. ft. of your back yard. Annual production in Washington State is ~5500kwh. That's 15kw per day fo me to live on with very little problem. I have extra, want some? SolaRichard in Tacoma

hahaha! you got hit up real

hahaha! you got hit up real hard by the nuke lobby folks, didn't ya? i just love how they have these paid ad agents to go around the web, talking up nuke power as a clean solution to our global warming problems...that is, when they are talking to liberals.

and then, when they are addressing conservatives, they talk it up as safe solution to our energy crisis, and those dumb liberals are all scaredy pants about an accident here or there...hahaha.

the truth about nuke power is it's no good. there's no solution for the waste whatsoever, and the only science that claims there's a solution, comes out of the nuke companies or lobbyists. hehe!

let's not forget the incredible subsidies that it gets, making it actually more expensive to run than solar.

and the dangers of having such incredibly large, centralized power plants, in this post 9-11 age, when security is a real concern, especially to our power grid. if we distributed the power sources out to individuals more, we'd be safer, have a more secure grid, give consumers more choices about their energy solutions, solve global warming, create more jobs and safer ones than centralized nuke power can, and no worries about nuclear waste and what to do with it...like, trying to put them in our military's equipment and giving our soliders crazy medical problems from it.

yes, we've had what, three major accidents so far...think of how many power plants we have. we'd need at least that many more to be part of the "mix", which means it's pretty likely that we'll have three more accidents just like it, or worse.

and has anyone ever noticed that whenever we're dealing with crazy dictators who we suspect are creating nuclear weapons, they keep talking about how they're really just trying to get nuke power for their people? yeah right. what if we offered to them for free the latest and greatest technology in solar and wind power, equivalent for one nuke power plant, and see what they say then?

mark, you should do a cartoon for it. check out beyondnuclear.org, or co-op america, for more info.

Good Lesson. Nuclear is

Good Lesson.
Nuclear is risky and deadly no matter how many safeguards. Remember chernobyl and three mile island. Everything is fallable man and machine. The mistakes stay around for decades, centuries. Solar is the only viable solution.

Solar isn't the only viable

Solar isn't the only viable option.

Wind and wave power are viable.

And then there's hemp ethanol:

http://hemp-ethanol.blogspot.com/

Casey_questionmark's picture

Three Mile Island worked

Three Mile Island worked just like it was supposed to; there were no injuries and no long term environmental impacts. Why people continue to whine about it is beyond me. As for Chernobyl, that was built using carbon to shield radiation and no sealed superstructure around the reactor, both of which have never been implemented in the USA. That is a very poor example and shouldn’t be used as a way of dismissing nuclear power.
Casey?

Yeah, all hail Ra, the sun

Yeah, all hail Ra, the sun god. - NOT

Facts On The Ground:

-No ground based solar farm could ever practically meet the current energy demand let alone the increase that is surely to follow.

-Hydrogen needs to be made, and that takes energy to begin with.

-As for wind, well I won't insult any ones intelligence by going into the details of why that won't work.

-For now nuclear fission is all we got, that and Methane clathrate and the untapped oil fields under Antarctica.

Fusion would be nice but thats still experimental.

COTO's picture

Nuclear will certainly be a

Nuclear will certainly be a part of a viable solution, but don't poo-poo solar.

Priceman posted the (admittedly, somewhat contrived) SciAm solar energy plan a few days ago in this forum.

Nuclear plants take considerable time to plan, construct, and secure; realistically, too long to fully replace our current infrastructure in a reasonable timeframe. Renewable energy helps to fill the void.

Nations like Israel have already met with good success decentralizing energy production to per-home solar units. The last I read, 40% of the Israeli population uses solar energy for hot water production and to supplement home power consumption. Depending on energy usage, this can cut power pulled off the grid by 35%-75%.

The efficiency of photovoltaics has been creeping steadily upward over the past decade, too.

Pertaining to 'increase': What increase? U.S. energy consumption has stayed (relatively) constant for two decades. According to some metrics, it has gone down.

Pertaining to Antarctica: Given that the popular model of hydrocarbon production is that crude oil is formed from petrified biomass and given that Antarctica's land climate hasn't changed since the Paleozoic era, a wealth of oil hardly seems likely. If you're working from another model of hydrocarbon formation (there are dozens, and I actually subscribe to one of the abiogenic theories), post it. I'd be interested.

And yeah, fusion is still pretty experimental. (2015 for the first test of magnetic containment in France!)

Casey_questionmark's picture

Nuclear power is clean,

Nuclear power is clean, efficient and safe. It is the best known way of producing energy and if the misguided scare tactics and fears are ceased this country could run on NO COAL OR PETROLEUM for electricity production in less than 20 years as source of power. The effects this would have on the environment are not currently quantifiable but would be extreme. There has been no major United Statsian accident or failure in the history of the technology. The Three Mile Island plant would just as it was designed and caused no damage at all to anyone, thus it does not qualify as a reason to suspend US suspend its domestic nuclear power program as has been. Nuclear power is better than solar, wind, hydro, or geothermal, all do to their limited availability. The irrational fear of the nuclear power is something that I don’t understand form the American Left. And although not relevant to the current topic, the Left in the United States is in the center of a real political spectrum. So this talk of the “center” being lost is ridiculous to me. People need to accept that the USA is decidedly right of center, they do not, however, need to accept my sentiment that is a very dangerous place to be.
Casey?

COTO's picture

Reply to Casey?/Priceman

Reply to Casey?/Priceman Thread Tue, 2008-06-17 21:57:
(Another victim of Mr. Fiore's incredible shrinking windows!)

I'm curious about your anecdotal evidence (i.e. about the legal side of things). Specifically, anything you've dealt with pertaining to regulation of nuclear energy. I don't get to see the legal side of issues 'up close' as much as I'd like.

The citizen.org piece rehashes some good points, but you'll note that the per-year subsidies they're denouncing amount to less than the cost of the SciAm plan.

The contention that nuclear power is 'too slow, expensive, and inflexible a technology to address climate change' implies that renewable is somehow 'faster', which both the SciAm and the IEA people disagree with.

Having toured a reactor plant (at McMaster University) during my undergrad, I can assure you that the 'crashing a plane into a nuclear reactor to cause a meltdown' scenario is technological fiction.

And if a team of eighty commandos storms a plant, all it takes is the push of a button to instantly shut down a reactor and prevent its reinitialization. The control systems are mechanized, gravity-driven, fail-safe in the event of any kind of tampering or power outage, and ludicrously redundant (six sigma by four, at the very minimum). And despite that a 'master control box' to meltdown all the reactors in the U.S. makes for good watchin' on '24', you've never heard a group of engineers laugh louder. (It isn't mechanically possible for reactors to increase reaction rates above set tolerances, for starters.)

There's always problems with NIMBY, but at some critical point people have to accept the risk if the good of society demands it. We wouldn't have a single prison, homeless shelter, methadone clinic, sewage treatment plant, dump, freeway, etc., etc. if people didn't. (Besides, you guys ship a fair bit of your nuclear waste up here to Canada, anyway.)

My point being that if nuclear turns out to be a less expensive and faster to implement than solar in the short-term (e.g. the next 25-50 years), I'm with Casey? and Buster the Friendly Nuke.

priceman's picture

I was just making a

I was just making a point(just because your father is associated with a field does not necessarily make one an expert), and I haven't technically dealt with anything technically related to the Nuclear industry, but I have known of cases by my father where he has sued military contractors for faulty equipment that failed and other deregulation issues across the board. And it pays to pay attention to Public Citizen and their long history of credibility which enhanced the standard of living for everyone and that includes holding the nuclear industry accountable.

And from what you said, I think you're missing the point of the Public Citizen piece, slightly.

1. Spent Fuel Security:
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/nuclear_safety/spent-reactor-fuel-sec...
2. It's unlikely, but certainly not technological fiction:
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/nuclear_safety/nuclear-reactor-air-de...
3. Radiation is a health hazard because it can damage or destroy cells within the human body:
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/nuclear_safety/nuclear-reactor-securi...
4. Speaking of actual nuclear engineers which back up the article:
http://www.ans.org/pubs/magazines/nn/docs/2008-3-3.pdf

Brought to you by the Union of Concerned Scientists. Anyway, there are variables to the equation you are not taking into account, but I'd kind of like to quit, because I have stirred up all sorts of window-esque BS around here, so I'll stop. I really wish I wasn't the type who needed the last word; that is a flaw of mine among a few I do have as I'm not perfect, but I do have a foundation to what I say.

Until we meet again in the wonderful world of Fioreland, I call a truce with both of you without your consent. :P

Priceman

COTO's picture

(2) is a bit surprising if

(2) is a bit surprising if accurate (and I see no reason why it shouldn't be). The findings don't mesh with the security measures in the reactor that I visited, but I'm also living in a country with reams more regulation. :P

(1) and (3) have a dedicated following of nuclear engineers seeking to 'fix' them (i.e. find safe long-term storage for waste in geologically stable areas).

> ...but I do have a foundation to what I say.

You do. We'll leave it at that, I suppose.

> ...I call a truce with both of you without your consent.

Isn't a one-sided truce called 'surrender'? ;)

No. I understand. (I've had to leave about half of the posts in threads I've spawned unanswered for lack of time.)

I'm a bit wiser than I was a week ago. The environmental version of the VHS/BetaMax wars will play out as it will. I suppose we can all just agree that Lord Petro _needs to go_. >_<

Ironic, for me. Casey?'s father is RadCon. Your father is a prosecutor for tort law.

My old man? You guessed it...

An oil exec. :P

Regards,

COTO

priceman's picture

Hate to do this, especially

Hate to do this, especially to a fellow Edwards supporter, but you're wrong.

There are many fatal flaws with nuclear power and they are not irrational fears of "the American left." They are the facts:

Nuclear's Fatal Flaws: Summary

http://www.citizen.org/cmep/energy_enviro_nuclear/nuclear_power_plants/a...

It will probably have to be used in some capacity as a stepping stone before more efficiency output increases, but it is not a viable solution like solar for many reasons. Huge subsidies for the unregulated nuclear energy industry are what this propaganda campaign is trying to push through and it's important to get the facts and they don't support your conclusion.

And Americans are actually more to the left than people realize(most want to end the war and are mostly pro-choice. Most support health care for all even if they have to pay taxes to get it, and most want the environmentally sound policies), but what is called "the center" has shifted significantly to the right sand most Americans are not there anymore.

Casey_questionmark's picture

Unregulated? Seriously?

Unregulated? Seriously? Nuclear power is among the most regulated Industries in the United States, do you have any idea how thick the safety regulations for a plant are. I agree that in the current capitalist system we have the only “economically viable,” for the love of the IPU I hate that term, way of producing power is huge corporate subside, which I am very uneasy with, but it is a lesser of two evils. We in the US are really close to a hydrogen reactor. That will recycle fuel, literally, two or three times longer than currently.
I went to your site and it is flat wrong. Terrorism is a ridiculous assertion does anyone realize that reactors and all at lest partially buried, surrounded by a very thick concrete superstructure to prevent contamination, and facilities are incredible difficult to access. Uranium mining is cleaner coal mining that is a fact. The technology exists to turn nearly all depleted uranium into batteries that power vehicles. That technology is already used on the Space Shuttle and various military drones. Investment into this field could change depleted uranium into a way to cleanly power trains without the wiring all rails in the country. Of course the NRC didn’t regulate under the Bush administration, no agency regulated under his administration that is his most treasonous act, appointing leaders of industries to regulate their own industry talk about a conflict of interest. So no I must disagree with you. Nuclear power is far more viable than solar and wind. What about the dangers of the materials solar panels are made out of that is nasty toxic stuff. The benefits outweigh the risks for both but for powering 300 million people and growing Nuclear makes more since and we can do it today and quickly remove fossils fuels from their harmful roles.

Yes I do agree that the so called "center" is right of most United Statsians but living in one of the redest states I often find myself second guessing that.
Casey?

priceman's picture

I'm kind of burnt out on

I'm kind of burnt out on arguing right now, but if it weren't for Public Citizen you wouldn't be drinking any safe water, the EPA wouldn't exist, your Ford Pento would blow up and you would die while Ford wrote your safety off to increase profit margins, and many other deregulations as Public Citizen is quintessential to this effort.

http://www.citizen.org/about/

Public Citizen is a national, nonprofit consumer advocacy organization founded in 1971 to represent consumer interests in Congress, the executive branch and the courts.

We fight for openness and democratic accountability in government, for the right of consumers to seek redress in the courts; for clean, safe and sustainable energy sources; for social and economic justice in trade policies; for strong health, safety and environmental protections; and for safe, effective and affordable prescription drugs and health care.

We have six divisions and one state office. To learn more about each of the divisions and our Texas office, click on the links below.

* Auto Safety
* Congress Watch
* Energy Program
* Global Trade Watch
* Health Research Group
* Litigation Group
* Texas State Office

Public Citizen's accomplishments since its founding more than 30 years ago include forcing the carcinogenic product Red Dye #2 off the market, securing the release of the Nixon White House tapes, helping to organize massive protests against the World Trade Organization and publishing the best-selling Worst Pills, Best Pills. Click here to view a detailed timeline of the organization's achievements:

http://www.citizen.org/documents/pctimeline.pdf

Everything in the article is a fact, and they would know. They bring to justice corporations including nuclear companies(if you were to become sterile by working at one of if you developed cancer) on your behalf to protect your consumer rights(which are constitutional rights) in this country like the auto industry. The access to these plants has been tried, tested, and failed as a way for anyone to get easy access as many times as the airports. We cannot even check our ports and we're going to actually check our nuclear plants? At least you do acknowledge that regulation is severely lacking in this administration as it is everywhere now, especially the banking industry.

We will have to agree to disagree, here.

Casey_questionmark's picture

They are wrong here. It

They are wrong here. It bothers me when anyone copys and paste from a link to make their point seem bigger.
Casey?

priceman's picture

Yeah, Ok. Whatever you say.

Yeah, Ok. Whatever you say. I guess actual sources or citations aren't for everyone, but don't put that on me. You can believe whatever you want but it still won't make nuclear waste disposable. Not in 100 years.

Cheers,

priceman

Casey_questionmark's picture

My family has lived well

My family has lived well because of a nuclear plant for my entire lifetime. My Father has been unionized RadCon for over twetey years and despite my schooling that is probably my where I'll end up too. I litterally grew up on the Nuclear Industry and know it could help Americans eleswhere. You learn a hell of a lot more about something from being around it then you do from the internet so don't try to lecture me on this.
What I by the link coment is post the link don't copy and paste directally from it and post it, that is silly.
btw, I was raised atheist in a Union household about as liberal background as there is do you think I don't know the public citizen is?
sry for hte spelling this was very quick
Casey?

priceman's picture

Anecdotal arguments only

Anecdotal arguments only take you so far and that's like me saying you don't know anything about what's regulated or what's unregulated because you don't come from a family of lawyers who try these kinds of cases and see these kinds of abuses, like I do. I understand why it might be hard to swallow that the nuclear industry is not properly regulated in your situation(your family has so much invested in it, but families invested in the hydrocarbon industry would also stick up for it), but I know more about the law and what's regulated than you think and it's not just about doing research on the Internet(which there's nothing wrong with as long as you cite your sources like I did which you have yet to really refute, which is what's silly).

But there's no reason to discuss this any further. You've decided what you want to believe. I know it's hard for people to believe something if it goes against a good part of how they invested in their life, regardless of the facts. (Ask Nevadans how they feel about Yucca Mountain)

Casey_questionmark's picture

Dude the people that it

Dude the people that it effects the most are glad to have it. And their is way time more waste at the INL where I live and beside arogant miss informed bourgeoisie in Sun Valley and Jackson no one cares. I've been to other plants both government and private and the towns that have them love that they do. What you see and have heard is from people that don't know what they are talking about.
Casey?

This is not about the point

This is not about the point of our use of petrochemicals.
This is about the illiteracy of basic understanding of the history of life of earth.
Oil deposits basically come from the Paleozoic.
Dinosaurs were living during the Mesozoic.
Very separate in time.

Not bad, good satire without

Not bad, good satire without responding to picking out singular characteristics.

You've got audiences round the world, btw.

Ninure's picture

"we" want embed codes, "we"

"we" want embed codes, "we" want embed codes, "we" want embed codes.....

*march* *stomp* *stomp* *march*

NO embed codes, PLEASE.

NO embed codes, PLEASE. People would go crazy with them and a huge RAM suck would happen when you suspected an innocent blog. What's wrong with a simple link?

...But, this 'toon is gold...

How many people have seen

How many people have seen the DVD/movie, "Who Killed the Electric Car?" and what does it say to us? Rev. Jim

Mr Fiore, I respect your

Mr Fiore, I respect your opinions on your animated cartoons, but, have you gone too far regarding the use of religion symbols like The Bible and the Holy Water remarks?

Ninure's picture

As a retired clegy-type, let

As a retired clegy-type, let me say, NOPE.

this is absolutely one of

this is absolutely one of your best!!!!!!!

priceman's picture

Great work, Mr Fiore. I

Great work, Mr Fiore. I apologize for the long comment, but I feel this is important information and that your subtle reference to solar energy as a viable solution is right on and the evidence is in.

We must cast off the chains from the Lord Petro! Apollo will save us!(J/K, but the sun is there)

This one was very different in a very good way; people do need to be frightened of the serfdom that Lord Petro has all of us under.

COTO's picture

The part the toon didn't

The part the toon didn't show was the camera zooming out... out... out until we're in outer space and can properly see the solar cells covering 1/3 of America's landmass, which is roughly the size of the sun farm we'd need to make up for Lord Petro's bounty.

Solar, biomass, wind farms, and other renewable energy sources aren't a pipe dream, but the scale is confounding. Even the most optimistic analysts are predicting that it will take a full 25 years to replace our current energy infrastructure. (I think the 25 year benchmark also entails the construction of a fully-functional 200 MW nuclear plant every six weeks, which is obscenely hopeful.)

The reason: lack of ideas? Lack of research? Lack of will to change?

All are in good supply. What isn't in good supply is money. And we're not talking about a piddling 300 or 400 billion that the flat-broke US government can't afford anyway. We're talking a few trillion dollars short of the US GDP. All those sun farms, biomass vats, and nuclear plants need Petro to get 'em up and running. Just expect an extra $15K or $20K tacked onto your tax bill for the next 25 years to do it.

And so it would seem that our worship of Lord Petro, forumite and prophetic cartoonist alike, shall continue for a good while longer.

Rub it in, why don't you? ;)

priceman's picture

This estimate is false,

This estimate is false, though you are right some key figures in your comment. Here are the facts:

http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=a-solar-grand-plan&page=1

Solar energy’s potential is off the chart. The energy in sunlight striking the earth for 40 minutes is equivalent to global energy consumption for a year. The U.S. is lucky to be endowed with a vast resource; at least 250,000 square miles of land in the Southwest alone are suitable for constructing solar power plants, and that land receives more than 4,500 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of solar radiation a year. Converting only 2.5 percent of that radiation into electricity would match the nation’s total energy consumption in 2006.

To convert the country to solar power, huge tracts of land would have to be covered with photovoltaic panels and solar heating troughs. A direct-current (DC) transmission backbone would also have to be erected to send that energy efficiently across the nation.

The technology is ready. On the following pages we present a grand plan that could provide 69 percent of the U.S.’s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy (which includes transportation) with solar power by 2050. We project that this energy could be sold to consumers at rates equivalent to today’s rates for conventional power sources, about five cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). If wind, biomass and geothermal sources were also developed, renewable energy could provide 100 percent of the nation’s electricity and 90 percent of its energy by 2100.

Huge tracts of land, but hardly 1/3rd of the U.S:

In our plan, by 2050 photovoltaic technology would provide almost 3,000 gigawatts (GW), or billions of watts, of power. Some 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic arrays would have to be erected. Although this area may sound enormous, installations already in place indicate that the land required for each gigawatt-hour of solar energy produced in the Southwest is less than that needed for a coal-powered plant when factoring in land for coal mining. Studies by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., show that more than enough land in the Southwest is available without requiring use of environmentally sensitive areas, population centers or difficult terrain. Jack Lavelle, a spokesperson for Arizona’s Department of Water Conservation, has noted that more than 80 percent of his state’s land is not privately owned and that Arizona is very interested in developing its solar potential. The benign nature of photovoltaic plants (including no water consumption) should keep environmental concerns to a minimum.

It's actually slightly longer than your estimate, which I do give credit, but solar energy can fit the total bill without those other technologies. Really I get the cost concern and you're right that we probably will need to be taxed in some way(but not substantially like you claim), because though our government is in a crippling amount debt, unregulated industry is allowed to thrive and what we need is an aggressive carbon tax, which is already outlined in this proposal which will work if implemented:

Who Pays?

Our model is not an austerity plan, because it includes a 1 percent annual increase in demand, which would sustain lifestyles similar to those today with expected efficiency improvements in energy generation and use. Perhaps the biggest question is how to pay for a $420-billion(I give you credit fore being right about the cost here) overhaul of the nation’s energy infrastructure. One of the most common ideas is a carbon tax. The International Energy Agency suggests that a carbon tax of $40 to $90 per ton of coal will be required to induce electricity generators to adopt carbon capture and storage systems to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This tax is equivalent to raising the price of electricity by one to two cents per kWh. But our plan is less expensive. The $420 billion could be generated with a carbon tax of 0.5 cent per kWh. Given that electricity today generally sells for six to 10 cents per kWh, adding 0.5 cent per kWh seems reasonable.

Congress could establish the financial incentives by adopting a national renewable energy plan. Consider the U.S. Farm Price Support program, which has been justified in terms of national security. A solar price support program would secure the nation’s energy future, vital to the country’s long-term health. Subsidies would be gradually deployed from 2011 to 2020. With a standard 30-year payoff interval, the subsidies would end from 2041 to 2050. The HVDC transmission companies would not have to be subsidized, because they would finance construction of lines and converter stations just as they now finance AC lines, earning revenues by delivering electricity.

Although $420 billion is substantial, the annual expense would be less than the current U.S. Farm Price Support program. It is also less than the tax subsidies that have been levied to build the country’s high-speed telecommunications infrastructure over the past 35 years. And it frees the U.S. from policy and budget issues driven by international energy conflicts.

Without subsidies, the solar grand plan is impossible. Other countries have reached similar conclusions: Japan is already building a large, subsidized solar infrastructure, and Germany has embarked on a nationwide program. Although the investment is high, it is important to remember that the energy source, sunlight, is free. There are no annual fuel or pollution-control costs like those for coal, oil or nuclear power, and only a slight cost for natural gas in compressed-air systems, although hydrogen or biofuels could displace that, too. When fuel savings are factored in, the cost of solar would be a bargain in coming decades. But we cannot wait until then to begin scaling up.

It doesn't pay to be too pessimistic IMO, we didn't move past the stone age, because we ran out of rocks, or invent th automobile, because we ran out of hay. Here is the challenge:

The greatest obstacle to implementing a renewable U.S. energy system is not technology or money, however. It is the lack of public awareness that solar power is a practical alternative—and one that can fuel transportation as well. Forward-looking thinkers should try to inspire U.S. citizens, and their political and scientific leaders, about solar power’s incredible potential. Once Americans realize that potential, we believe the desire for energy self-sufficiency and the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will prompt them to adopt a national solar plan. 

Have faith. ;)

COTO's picture

See, that's what I can't

See, that's what I can't stand: such pessimism!

Here I'm painting a picture where Lord Petro could possibly be dethroned in the next 25 years, and you're complaining that the best we can hope for is to 90% dethrone the man (eh... drum) by 2100. (I got a good laugh out of your 'slightly longer' comment. :D Just a little bit. Only after our children's generation has literally died of old age.)

And I claim it can be done with $15K tacked onto the tax bill for the next quarter-century, and here you come back with a plan:


4,745 kgoe Energy Consumption Per Capita Per Year in US (2004) x
4 kWh/kgoe x
$0.005 USD/kWh x
(2/0.35) (Factor for getting up to 100% in 25 years rather than 35% in 50 years) x
25 yr



$13,557.14 USD/person x
(1/0.7) (Factor considering that [generously] 70% of the US population is working and is eligible to pay taxes on any given year.)


$19,367.37 USD/taxpayer!

Or almost 20K$ onto the tax bill for the next 25 years, which is pessimistically close to the high end of my estimate! :(

Do you want to destroy the good news I brought into the forum?
Are you happy now that you've convinced us all that my estimates were optimistic?

I suppose you redeem yourself somewhat with the area of coverage. I predicted a third of the US. (OK, that's an exaggeration, the difference being:)


30,000 sq. mi. x
(1/0.35) (Factor for getting up to 100% rather than 35%) x
2 ([highly] generous estimate of the 'infrastructure area' associated with the sun farms, including access roads, maintenance corridors, storage batteries, buildings, power substations, etc., etc.)



171,500 sq. mi. (SCIAM Estimate) x
(14%/3%) (Factor considering the analysis I did in 2002 used solar cells with an efficiency of 3% rather than the 14%* in the SCIAM plan)


800,000 sq. mi. (My estimate; actual estimate from 2002 was 1,028,000 sq. mi.)

*assumes using cadmium telluride technology, which is a bit pipe-dreamy in the sense that these photovoltaics have a mean-time-to-fail of 20 years

So, not quite 1/3 of the U/S; just... Texas, New Mexico, and... Arizona. (Who needs 'em anyway.)

With the SCIAM estimate, you've redeemed yourself somewhat by optimistically saving Arizona, New Mexico, and... a little piece of Texas. Since photovoltaics with 14% efficiency are pretty darn optimistic, perhaps I'll forgive you for pessimistically dumping the SCIAM article on Mr. Fiore's site.

Or maybe not.

I realize that you're heavily invested in oil, and you'd very much like us all to continue worshipping Petro until 2100 ('Have faith', as you say), but did you really have to crush my dream of being free in 25 years?

I was happy. Only a quarter of my lifespan. Only $15K. Texas would still exist! And now you've gone and taken it all away.

Well, you can tell me that my estimate is 'false' all you like, you acolyte of Petro, I'll continue to think big and dream of a better world.

Your Pal,

COTO

priceman's picture

Calm down. I didn't dump on

Calm down. I didn't dump on everything you said. You act like I slapped you in the face. I did probably post too much of that article,(my apologies Mr. Fiore and to everyone if that was too much) but I said you were right about a lot and in some ways, your estimate is more optimistic, but 1/3 of the U.S is what I said was false. I now see how you came up with that figure, but I didn't mean to sound condescending, though 1/3rd of the U.S is still not accurate.

I said a good bit of your figures were accurate, but I pointed to the carbon tax on the coal industry also, which doesn't have anything to do with individual tax payers. And if you read the article it factors 90% with other sources such as wind and geothermal equaling to that 100% so that's not an accurate description.

I didn't mean to crush your dream and I didn't. I don't think we should be heavily invested in oil till 2100, but the excuse that this will cover 1/3rd of the united states is something oil companies use, so perhaps I was thrown off by that analysis and it's possible that maybe you are being too optimistic, but there is plenty of pessimism in portraying solar energy as an endeavor that will cost us 1/3rd of our landmass when that is not the case and with the landmass of the southwest which will be used; also populations and land will not have to be sacrificed in how you are portraying it(that's where I get the pessamism). But you don't mention the coal industry which is trying to enslave us to an even worse fate(Mr. Fiore has an animation showing this as well) and with other forms of alternative energy, it's possible that we could slay Lord Petro sooner(anything possible) but this article shows realistically how to pay for it without taxing individuals to the bone.

But throwing a fit and calling me an acolyte of Lord Petro because you were wrong about 1/3rd of the U.S having to be used for solar energy in a pessimistic tone(as if the southwest is going to turn into Mad max country like what is refuted in the article) just like those in the Lord Petro industry, does not make you out to be a leader on this issue. That's all.

That and you pessimistically act as if we would be doing away with these states and their populations which the article also refutes, for most of the infrastructure is already there(which is optimistic like you say even if you don't agree with it) that wouldn't have to displace the population as you imply or I don't know what you are implying as in assuming we have to somehow get rid of the southwest later on.

As other sources of alternative energy improve we could be weened off in 25 years, but people will look at your figures(which again, don't take into account a carbon tax. Yeah, I'm an acolyte of Lord Petro, but I want the industry taxed to pay for this.lol.) as the tax and spend demon that we cannot afford to fully perpetuate right or wrong. I certainly don't mind paying taxes to ween us off of Lord Petro, but to tie it to individuals without mentioning critical variables is not helping and it's not accurate like the 1/3 figure still is not which was my main contention.

I'll ask you to kindly not put words or intentions in my mouth. using the same TP as the Petro industry against solar energy and pretending that individuals alone are going to have to pay for it does not make it seems as if you dream of a bigger or better world and that's certainly pessimistic. I certainly don't mind paying taxes for something that will help put us off the disastrous path that Lord Petro and the subsidies given to Lord Petro(which seem alien to you as far as variables are concerned) when his minions are able to avoid paying U.S taxes in the Cayman islands(missing variable) while their profit margins break record after record(missing variable) with no little or no taxes on their windfall profits which aren't reported.

Lord Petro and the industry that has enslaved us to him should have top bear more of the burden and that's dreaming of a better world without Lord Petro. I don't support Lord Petro and I don't use his TP. I also don't use his tactics by slandering others.

The hated one,

Priceman

COTO's picture

Uh. Between the bobbleheads

Uh. Between the bobbleheads and this, it's like I'm talking to Amelia Bedelia***.

It was a satire.

An 'acolyte of Petro': After you came out with guns blazing* to defend solar energy.
Heavily invested in oil: After you've repeatedly attacked the U.S.'s capitalist excesses with both barrels*. You've also mentioned that you aren't in a financial situation to invest in gold, which (just a wild guess) means oil, too.
Pessimism: After you've posted a viable (albeit delightfully optimistic) solar plan and showered it with enthusiastic praise.

You called me on the 1/3 exaggeration (honestly, at 800,000 sq. mi., who cares if its 1/3, 1/4, 1/1024? It's freakin' huge!) and I posted a glaringly sarcastic response (or so I thought) to demonstrate that we share our optimism.

If I botch an estimate, criticize away! I don't take offence easily in public forums. ;)

I must admit, I read your posts 1/3** hoping you don't call me out on a botched statistic after a painfully thorough analysis, 1/3 curious about your thoughtful and (uncharacteristically) well-researched 'leftie'* views, and 1/3 wondering what obscure, glaringly idiomatic thing you'll manage to take literally next.

I got a good laugh out of 'bobblehead' and 'acolyte' taken-literalies, at any rate. ;)

> The hated one,

Oh, now you're just ridin' the victim train*. ;)

*Statement not to be taken literally.
**Fraction may not be accurate; should be used as a guideline only.
***I do not actually believe that you are Amelia Bedelia.

Your Pal,

COTO

priceman's picture

Perhaps I do need to lighten

Perhaps I do need to lighten up.

I'm always in serious blogger mode, but there was a little bit of satire in my response to you, via the hated one remark.(I know I'm not truly hated or even if I was, so what. Being hated can be a compliment, because if you're not pissing some people off, you're not doing your job IMO. Like this site hits on all levels and makes some RW heads explode, though Mr. Fiore welcomes dissenting opinions as he should)) Really, I was kind of worried that I didn't follow this site's etiquette by posting a lot of that SCIAM article and I like this site and didn't want to piss Mr. Fiore off(though it is viable information), so I guess I was slightly worried about that. I took what you said literally in a lot of facets, but I see now where our misunderstandings happened and I don't need to harp on them.

I have to admit, part of me just wanted to jump on what you said for no real reason as you did my Maher reference last time, though you got where I was going with that, because I showed you. :P

I guess you have really been paying attention to me and you get what I'm saying and I know we do disagree on a number of things, but I know you get where I am coming from now and vice versa.
I've said my piece and though there are nuances to how we both view this enslavement of Lord Petro and how to fight it; it looks like that in the end, we do agree on the big picture here..

No more idiomatic phrases of yours taken out of context and I will lighten up a bit.

Cheers,

priceman.

priceman's picture

And BTW, the United States

And BTW, the United States total area is 3,537,441 square miles.

1/3rd of this area = 1,179,147 sq miles - 800,000 sq miles(your sum) = 379,147 sq miles

Texas = 268,601 square miles

Arizona = 121,593 square miles

268,601 + 121,593 = 382,607

So the land mass that you have left after your calculation is about equal to the size of Texas and Arizona together showing that even in your assumption, it still falls very short of 1/3 of 3,537,441 square miles even if you rounded it off.

And you said it was me who didn't care about these states.

Oh well, I'm optimistic that you mean well however misguided, but try not to jump to conclusions regarding other people's motivations without proper understanding, ok?

Thanks, pal.

Priceman

actually a very EASY way

actually a very EASY way houses could be heated or cooled in north america and even around the world is geothermal energy....

essentially you drill holes in the ground then put in some pipes with a fluid (i can't remember what) and with a little bit of electricity you literly PUMP the heat out of the ground to heat up the house...........

or to cool you pump it back down into the earth works both ways.

the innitial cost is high but the energy savings pay for it's self in 5-8 years

The discussion focus too

The discussion focus too much on supply and too little on efficiency! An even easier way to heat or cool homes is to build proper houses. At a visit in the US I saw houses where one could literally see through between the windows and the walls, one-layer windows and - naturally - really high demand for heating. I really hope it is not the same everywhere, but this was (I kid you not) in the northern part of US! I live in Sweden myself and we have regulations about energy efficiency. This means 3-layer windows, lots of insulation, and energy requirements of max 110 kWh/m2 year. So, heating can be easily taken care of using good construction practices, installing solar panels on the roof, and during really cold weather adding some biofuels. The problem is then (1) electricity and (2) transport. The stuff we really need electricity for (computers, household appliances, lights, some industrial processes, and so on) can be supplied using wind-, water-, wave-, and solar energy, also biofuel CHPs (combined heat and power). Transport is a trickier matter. One part of the solution is to increase the use of railroads as such transport is much more energy efficient than lorries. People transportation needs could lessen by combating urban sprawl. In the shorter perspective, second and third generation ethanol could be a part of the solution (only the first generation is made of crops, the next step is to use by-products). Electrical cars could be the next big thing, but if so, one would likely need some nuclear power to get a sufficient amount of electricity.

Hehe! The first time I

Hehe!

The first time I watched this animation I didn't here "Suck" but that other "uck" word that starts with F. I was a bit shocked and had to watch it again... still sounds awfully close. ;-)

Another excellent cartoon Mark!

-Scott Stevenson

Black gold might not be as

Black gold might not be as scarce as we thought. This week oil prices escalated to a record $139 per barrel, but that may partly be because the amount of available oil in known reserves has been significantly underestimated.

So says Richard Pike, a former oil-industry adviser and chief executive of the UK Royal Society of Chemistry, who blames flawed statistical calculations.

Oil companies produce a bell-shaped probability distribution for how much each oil reservoir might hold, and then quote as an indicator of the reservoir's capacity a figure they are 90 per cent certain they can exceed. When publishing a result for multiple reservoirs, they simply add up the figures for each one. And this is where the problem lies.

"They should be combining the bell curves for each reservoir," says Pike. Adding the numbers for each reservoir ignores statistical information about the extremes of the distribution, giving a result which underestimates the true total figure for all the reservoirs.

According to published estimates, there are 1200 billion barrels still to be extracted, but Pike says there could in fact be twice as much. "The figures are almost meaningless and just provide a conservative estimate for shareholders."

Pike claims that most oil companies do calculate statistically accurate estimates of the combined capacity of their oil reserves, but no one can access this information to work out how much oil there really is in total. "All companies keep their internal probabilistic estimates quiet," he says.

ueshiba's picture

What you wrote may be true,

What you wrote may be true, but another true fact is the growing demand for oil, especially since countries like China, Brazil and India are trying to catch up with Westerners economically, and in their consumption habits. And these countries are among the most populous on the planet. If their inhabitants are meant to be as greedy as Westerners are, the oil reserves are scarcer than we think.

admin's picture

"If their inhabitants are

"If their inhabitants are meant to be as greedy as Westerners are, the oil reserves are scarcer than we think." - Well, that's one way of putting it. You could also say "if 'Westerners' continue their greed, and the spread of capitalism continues to grow internationally -- as it is spread through 'Western' greed -- the oil reserves may dry up sooner than expected."

ueshiba's picture

You are absolutely right.

You are absolutely right. The only logical solution would be for Westerners to be less greedy; however, are we ready?

admin's picture

Lord Petro, says "Suck it up

Lord Petro, says "Suck it up and pay!" Many thanks to my friend, Noah, who is the voice of Lord Petro (formerly President Petro).

Largely unknown cartoonist fact: I own a John Deere tractor, much older than the one pictured in this animation.

-Mark

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